Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-03-20?
YES Price
26.0%
NO Price
74.0%
Volume
--
Liquidity
$156.6K
Days to Expiry
8
Mar 20, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Strong NO
Strength
100.0%
Edge
26.0%
Smart Wallets
1
Total smart money volume: $74 across 1 wallet. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 1 tracked wallets have deployed $74 in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge is 26.0% — a substantial gap between the current market price and where smart money analysis suggests the true probability lies. With the market pricing YES at 26.0% and the Strong NO consensus, there's a meaningful divergence that could represent a trading opportunity. Edges this large don't persist indefinitely; they either correct as the market catches up, or the smart money thesis proves wrong.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 26.0% and NO at 74.0%. A YES resolution returns 3.85x while a NO resolution returns 1.35x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
With 8 days until expiry, this is a short-duration trade. The compressed timeline limits exposure to black swan events but also means the market is likely well-informed. Position conviction should be high at this stage.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
54/72
Moderate Opportunity
Annualized Return
1000%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$156.6K
Available depth
This market scores in the top tier for trading opportunity. The combination of smart money edge, market liquidity, and time to expiry makes it worth close attention. The annualized return of 1000% is attractive if the smart money consensus proves correct.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-03-20?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 26.0% and NO at 74.0%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 26.0%.
What does smart money think about "Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-03-20?"?
Smart money consensus is Strong NO with 100% strength. 1 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $74. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-03-20?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 54 out of 72 and an alpha score of 3 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 26.0%. The annualized return potential is 1000%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this sports market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 20, 2026. That's 8 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-03-20?" market?
The market has $156.6K in liquidity. Deep liquidity — easy to enter and exit positions
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