Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?
YES Price
7.5%
NO Price
92.5%
Volume
$69.5K
Liquidity
$19.4K
Days to Expiry
295
Jan 1, 2027
Alpha Score
Insufficient Data
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Split
Strength
40.0%
Edge
--
Smart Wallets
5
Total smart money volume: $20.8K across 5 wallets. Direction: SPLIT.
Market Analysis
Smart money is divided on this market. 5 tracked wallets have placed $20.8K in total positions, but without a clear directional consensus. A split among informed traders often indicates genuine uncertainty — this market may be closer to a coin flip than the current prices suggest.
At 7.5% for YES, this is a high-payout longshot. A YES resolution would return roughly 13.3x on the investment. The asymmetry is attractive — you don't need to be right often on these to profit, but the base rate of sub-20% events resolving YES is low. Consider position sizing accordingly.
This is a longer-dated market with 295 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
At $69.5K in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
6/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
--
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$19.4K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 7.5% and NO at 92.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 7.5%. The market has seen $69.5K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?"?
Smart money consensus is Split with 40% strength. 5 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $20.8K. Their overall direction is SPLIT.
Is "Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 6 out of 72 and an alpha score of N/A out of 100. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this crypto & web3 market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027. That's 295 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?" market?
The market has $19.4K in liquidity. Thin liquidity — may experience slippage on larger orders Total volume traded is $69.5K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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