Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on March 14?
YES Price
6.2%
NO Price
93.8%
Volume
$2.4K
Liquidity
$1.8K
Days to Expiry
2
Mar 14, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Strong NO
Strength
100.0%
Edge
6.2%
Smart Wallets
1
Total smart money volume: $121 across 1 wallet. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 1 tracked wallets have deployed $121 in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge sits at 6.2%, indicating a moderate gap between market pricing and smart money sentiment. YES is currently at 6.2% while the Strong NO consensus suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to the information smart wallets are acting on. This edge is meaningful but not extreme.
At 6.2% for YES, this is a high-payout longshot. A YES resolution would return roughly 16.3x on the investment. The asymmetry is attractive — you don't need to be right often on these to profit, but the base rate of sub-20% events resolving YES is low. Consider position sizing accordingly.
This market expires in 2 days — resolution is imminent. Short-dated markets tend to have the most accurate pricing since most information is already known. Any remaining edge is likely small, but the rapid time decay means positions resolve quickly with minimal holding risk.
At $2.4K in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
11/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
1000%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$1.8K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on March 14?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 6.2% and NO at 93.8%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 6.2%. The market has seen $2.4K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on March 14?"?
Smart money consensus is Strong NO with 100% strength. 1 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $121. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on March 14?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 11 out of 72 and an alpha score of 7 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 6.2%. The annualized return potential is 1000%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this science & technology market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 14, 2026. That's 2 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on March 14?" market?
The market has $1.8K in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk Total volume traded is $2.4K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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