LoL: LYON vs LOUD (BO5) - First Stand Group B
YES Price
77.0%
NO Price
23.0%
Volume
$58.8K
Liquidity
$33.1K
Days to Expiry
5
Mar 18, 2026
Alpha Score
Moderate Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Strong YES
Strength
100.0%
Edge
23.0%
Smart Wallets
2
Total smart money volume: $12.7K across 2 wallets. Direction: STRONG YES.
Market Analysis
Smart money is decisively bullish on this market. 2 tracked wallets with a history of profitable trades have taken positions totaling $12.7K, overwhelmingly favoring YES. This level of conviction from informed traders is notable — when this many smart wallets align on one side, it often signals information or analysis the broader market hasn't fully priced in.
The consensus edge is 23.0% — a substantial gap between the current market price and where smart money analysis suggests the true probability lies. With the market pricing YES at 77.0% and the Strong YES consensus, there's a meaningful divergence that could represent a trading opportunity. Edges this large don't persist indefinitely; they either correct as the market catches up, or the smart money thesis proves wrong.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 77.0% and NO at 23.0%. A YES resolution returns 1.30x while a NO resolution returns 4.35x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
With 5 days until expiry, this is a short-duration trade. The compressed timeline limits exposure to black swan events but also means the market is likely well-informed. Position conviction should be high at this stage.
At $58.8K in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
48/72
Moderate Opportunity
Annualized Return
1000%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$33.1K
Available depth
This market presents a moderate trading opportunity. The edge exists but is balanced against factors like liquidity constraints or lower conviction in the consensus. Position sizing should reflect the moderate confidence level.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "LoL: LYON vs LOUD (BO5) - First Stand Group B"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 77.0% and NO at 23.0%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 77.0%. The market has seen $58.8K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "LoL: LYON vs LOUD (BO5) - First Stand Group B"?
Smart money consensus is Strong YES with 100% strength. 2 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $12.7K. Their overall direction is STRONG YES.
Is "LoL: LYON vs LOUD (BO5) - First Stand Group B" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 48 out of 72 and an alpha score of 45 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 23.0%. The annualized return potential is 1000%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this entertainment market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 18, 2026. That's 5 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "LoL: LYON vs LOUD (BO5) - First Stand Group B" market?
The market has $33.1K in liquidity. Moderate liquidity — suitable for most position sizes Total volume traded is $58.8K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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