Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?
YES Price
52.0%
NO Price
48.0%
Volume
$140.0K
Liquidity
$9.3K
Days to Expiry
110
Jun 30, 2026
Alpha Score
Low Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Strong NO
Strength
72.2%
Edge
52.0%
Smart Wallets
18
Total smart money volume: $6.5K across 18 wallets. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 18 tracked wallets have deployed $6.5K in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge is 52.0% — a substantial gap between the current market price and where smart money analysis suggests the true probability lies. With the market pricing YES at 52.0% and the Strong NO consensus, there's a meaningful divergence that could represent a trading opportunity. Edges this large don't persist indefinitely; they either correct as the market catches up, or the smart money thesis proves wrong.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 52.0% and NO at 48.0%. A YES resolution returns 1.92x while a NO resolution returns 2.08x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
This is a longer-dated market with 110 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
Total trading volume of $140.0K puts this in the moderately active tier. There's enough price discovery for the odds to be somewhat reliable, but not so much that alpha opportunities are completely arbitraged away.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
35/72
Mild Opportunity
Annualized Return
173%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$9.3K
Available depth
This market presents a moderate trading opportunity. The edge exists but is balanced against factors like liquidity constraints or lower conviction in the consensus. Position sizing should reflect the moderate confidence level.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 52.0% and NO at 48.0%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 52.0%. The market has seen $140.0K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?"?
Smart money consensus is Strong NO with 72% strength. 18 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $6.5K. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 35 out of 72 and an alpha score of 38 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 52.0%. The annualized return potential is 173%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this world politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on June 30, 2026. That's 110 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?" market?
The market has $9.3K in liquidity. Thin liquidity — may experience slippage on larger orders Total volume traded is $140.0K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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