Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-03-14?
YES Price
37.5%
NO Price
62.5%
Volume
$5.5K
Liquidity
$143.3K
Days to Expiry
2
Mar 14, 2026
Alpha Score
Low Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Lean NO
Strength
65.7%
Edge
26.2%
Smart Wallets
3
Total smart money volume: $6.2K across 3 wallets. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 3 tracked wallets have deployed $6.2K in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge is 26.2% — a substantial gap between the current market price and where smart money analysis suggests the true probability lies. With the market pricing YES at 37.5% and the Lean NO consensus, there's a meaningful divergence that could represent a trading opportunity. Edges this large don't persist indefinitely; they either correct as the market catches up, or the smart money thesis proves wrong.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 37.5% and NO at 62.5%. A YES resolution returns 2.67x while a NO resolution returns 1.60x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
This market expires in 2 days — resolution is imminent. Short-dated markets tend to have the most accurate pricing since most information is already known. Any remaining edge is likely small, but the rapid time decay means positions resolve quickly with minimal holding risk.
At $5.5K in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
36/72
Mild Opportunity
Annualized Return
1000%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$143.3K
Available depth
This market presents a moderate trading opportunity. The edge exists but is balanced against factors like liquidity constraints or lower conviction in the consensus. Position sizing should reflect the moderate confidence level.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-03-14?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 37.5% and NO at 62.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 37.5%. The market has seen $5.5K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-03-14?"?
Smart money consensus is Lean NO with 66% strength. 3 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $6.2K. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-03-14?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 36 out of 72 and an alpha score of 23 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 26.2%. The annualized return potential is 1000%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this sports market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 14, 2026. That's 2 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-03-14?" market?
The market has $143.3K in liquidity. Deep liquidity — easy to enter and exit positions Total volume traded is $5.5K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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