Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?
YES Price
83.5%
NO Price
16.5%
Volume
$181.8K
Liquidity
$704
Days to Expiry
30
Apr 12, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Lean YES
Strength
66.7%
Edge
11.6%
Smart Wallets
6
Total smart money volume: $1.7K across 6 wallets. Direction: STRONG YES.
Market Analysis
Smart money is decisively bullish on this market. 6 tracked wallets with a history of profitable trades have taken positions totaling $1.7K, overwhelmingly favoring YES. This level of conviction from informed traders is notable — when this many smart wallets align on one side, it often signals information or analysis the broader market hasn't fully priced in.
The consensus edge sits at 11.6%, indicating a moderate gap between market pricing and smart money sentiment. YES is currently at 83.5% while the Lean YES consensus suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to the information smart wallets are acting on. This edge is meaningful but not extreme.
With YES priced at 83.5%, this is a high-probability market with limited upside. A YES win returns only 20% on capital. The real opportunity may be on the NO side if you believe the market is overestimating the likelihood of this outcome. At 16.5% for NO, a correct contrarian bet returns 6.1x.
30 days remain until this market resolves. This medium-term horizon gives time for the smart money thesis to play out, but also introduces event risk. Markets this far from expiry can see significant price swings as new information emerges.
Total trading volume of $181.8K puts this in the moderately active tier. There's enough price discovery for the odds to be somewhat reliable, but not so much that alpha opportunities are completely arbitraged away.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
27/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
141%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$704
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 83.5% and NO at 16.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 83.5%. The market has seen $181.8K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?"?
Smart money consensus is Lean YES with 67% strength. 6 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $1.7K. Their overall direction is STRONG YES.
Is "Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 27 out of 72 and an alpha score of 12 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 11.6%. The annualized return potential is 141%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this sports market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on April 12, 2026. That's 30 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?" market?
The market has $704 in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk Total volume traded is $181.8K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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