US forces enter Iran by December 31?
YES Price
61.0%
NO Price
39.0%
Volume
$1.41M
Liquidity
$137.2K
Days to Expiry
294
Dec 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Lean NO
Strength
59.3%
Edge
42.7%
Smart Wallets
86
Total smart money volume: $542.5K across 86 wallets. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 86 tracked wallets have deployed $542.5K in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge is 42.7% — a substantial gap between the current market price and where smart money analysis suggests the true probability lies. With the market pricing YES at 61.0% and the Lean NO consensus, there's a meaningful divergence that could represent a trading opportunity. Edges this large don't persist indefinitely; they either correct as the market catches up, or the smart money thesis proves wrong.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 61.0% and NO at 39.0%. A YES resolution returns 1.64x while a NO resolution returns 2.56x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
This is a longer-dated market with 294 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
With $1.41M in total volume, this is a heavily-traded market with strong price discovery. High-volume markets tend to be more efficiently priced, making any remaining smart money edge particularly significant — it's harder to find alpha in liquid markets.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
36/72
Mild Opportunity
Annualized Return
53%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$137.2K
Available depth
This market presents a moderate trading opportunity. The edge exists but is balanced against factors like liquidity constraints or lower conviction in the consensus. Position sizing should reflect the moderate confidence level.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "US forces enter Iran by December 31?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 61.0% and NO at 39.0%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 61.0%. The market has seen $1.41M in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "US forces enter Iran by December 31?"?
Smart money consensus is Lean NO with 59% strength. 86 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $542.5K. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "US forces enter Iran by December 31?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 36 out of 72 and an alpha score of 12 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 42.7%. The annualized return potential is 53%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this world politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026. That's 294 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "US forces enter Iran by December 31?" market?
The market has $137.2K in liquidity. Deep liquidity — easy to enter and exit positions Total volume traded is $1.41M, which provides additional context on market activity.
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