US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
YES Price
38.0%
NO Price
62.0%
Volume
$371.1K
Liquidity
$39.5K
Days to Expiry
294
Dec 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Insufficient Data
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Split
Strength
46.8%
Edge
--
Smart Wallets
47
Total smart money volume: $51.0K across 47 wallets. Direction: SPLIT.
Market Analysis
Smart money is divided on this market. 47 tracked wallets have placed $51.0K in total positions, but without a clear directional consensus. A split among informed traders often indicates genuine uncertainty — this market may be closer to a coin flip than the current prices suggest.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 38.0% and NO at 62.0%. A YES resolution returns 2.63x while a NO resolution returns 1.61x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
This is a longer-dated market with 294 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
Total trading volume of $371.1K puts this in the moderately active tier. There's enough price discovery for the odds to be somewhat reliable, but not so much that alpha opportunities are completely arbitraged away.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
8/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
--
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$39.5K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 38.0% and NO at 62.0%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 38.0%. The market has seen $371.1K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?"?
Smart money consensus is Split with 47% strength. 47 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $51.0K. Their overall direction is SPLIT.
Is "US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 8 out of 72 and an alpha score of N/A out of 100. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this world politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026. That's 294 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?" market?
The market has $39.5K in liquidity. Moderate liquidity — suitable for most position sizes Total volume traded is $371.1K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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