Will Al Green be the Democratic nominee for TX-18?
YES Price
18.2%
NO Price
81.8%
Volume
$2.7K
Liquidity
$2.1K
Days to Expiry
74
May 26, 2026
Alpha Score
Insufficient Data
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Split
Strength
47.0%
Edge
--
Smart Wallets
3
Total smart money volume: $240 across 3 wallets. Direction: SPLIT.
Market Analysis
Smart money is divided on this market. 3 tracked wallets have placed $240 in total positions, but without a clear directional consensus. A split among informed traders often indicates genuine uncertainty — this market may be closer to a coin flip than the current prices suggest.
At 18.2% for YES, this is a high-payout longshot. A YES resolution would return roughly 5.5x on the investment. The asymmetry is attractive — you don't need to be right often on these to profit, but the base rate of sub-20% events resolving YES is low. Consider position sizing accordingly.
This is a longer-dated market with 74 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
At $2.7K in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
12/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
--
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$2.1K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Al Green be the Democratic nominee for TX-18?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 18.2% and NO at 81.8%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 18.2%. The market has seen $2.7K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will Al Green be the Democratic nominee for TX-18?"?
Smart money consensus is Split with 47% strength. 3 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $240. Their overall direction is SPLIT.
Is "Will Al Green be the Democratic nominee for TX-18?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 12 out of 72 and an alpha score of N/A out of 100. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this other markets market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on May 26, 2026. That's 74 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Al Green be the Democratic nominee for TX-18?" market?
The market has $2.1K in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk Total volume traded is $2.7K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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