Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
YES Price
26.5%
NO Price
73.5%
Volume
$2.58M
Liquidity
$72.0K
Days to Expiry
19
Mar 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Split
Strength
50.8%
Edge
--
Smart Wallets
124
Total smart money volume: $219.0K across 124 wallets. Direction: SPLIT.
Market Analysis
Smart money is divided on this market. 124 tracked wallets have placed $219.0K in total positions, but without a clear directional consensus. A split among informed traders often indicates genuine uncertainty — this market may be closer to a coin flip than the current prices suggest.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 26.5% and NO at 73.5%. A YES resolution returns 3.77x while a NO resolution returns 1.36x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
19 days remain until this market resolves. This medium-term horizon gives time for the smart money thesis to play out, but also introduces event risk. Markets this far from expiry can see significant price swings as new information emerges.
With $2.58M in total volume, this is a heavily-traded market with strong price discovery. High-volume markets tend to be more efficiently priced, making any remaining smart money edge particularly significant — it's harder to find alpha in liquid markets.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
29/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
--
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$72.0K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will another country strike Iran by March 31?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 26.5% and NO at 73.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 26.5%. The market has seen $2.58M in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will another country strike Iran by March 31?"?
Smart money consensus is Split with 51% strength. 124 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $219.0K. Their overall direction is SPLIT.
Is "Will another country strike Iran by March 31?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 29 out of 72 and an alpha score of 1 out of 100. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this world politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2026. That's 19 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will another country strike Iran by March 31?" market?
The market has $72.0K in liquidity. Moderate liquidity — suitable for most position sizes Total volume traded is $2.58M, which provides additional context on market activity.
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