Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
YES Price
81.5%
NO Price
18.5%
Volume
$7.16M
Liquidity
$965.7K
Days to Expiry
75
May 27, 2026
Alpha Score
Low Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Lean YES
Strength
65.3%
Edge
13.0%
Smart Wallets
49
Total smart money volume: $463.9K across 49 wallets. Direction: STRONG YES.
Market Analysis
Smart money is decisively bullish on this market. 49 tracked wallets with a history of profitable trades have taken positions totaling $463.9K, overwhelmingly favoring YES. This level of conviction from informed traders is notable — when this many smart wallets align on one side, it often signals information or analysis the broader market hasn't fully priced in.
The consensus edge sits at 13.0%, indicating a moderate gap between market pricing and smart money sentiment. YES is currently at 81.5% while the Lean YES consensus suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to the information smart wallets are acting on. This edge is meaningful but not extreme.
With YES priced at 81.5%, this is a high-probability market with limited upside. A YES win returns only 23% on capital. The real opportunity may be on the NO side if you believe the market is overestimating the likelihood of this outcome. At 18.5% for NO, a correct contrarian bet returns 5.4x.
This is a longer-dated market with 75 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
With $7.16M in total volume, this is a heavily-traded market with strong price discovery. High-volume markets tend to be more efficiently priced, making any remaining smart money edge particularly significant — it's harder to find alpha in liquid markets.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
33/72
Mild Opportunity
Annualized Return
63%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$965.7K
Available depth
This market presents a moderate trading opportunity. The edge exists but is balanced against factors like liquidity constraints or lower conviction in the consensus. Position sizing should reflect the moderate confidence level.
Trade This Market on PolyFire
Copy smart money trades automatically. One-click execution via Telegram.
Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 81.5% and NO at 18.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 81.5%. The market has seen $7.16M in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?"?
Smart money consensus is Lean YES with 65% strength. 49 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $463.9K. Their overall direction is STRONG YES.
Is "Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 33 out of 72 and an alpha score of 35 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 13.0%. The annualized return potential is 63%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this sports market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on May 27, 2026. That's 75 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?" market?
The market has $965.7K in liquidity. Deep liquidity — easy to enter and exit positions Total volume traded is $7.16M, which provides additional context on market activity.
Get Alpha Delivered
Weekly smart money moves, top-scoring markets, and data-driven predictions. No noise.
Coming soon.