Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?
YES Price
45.5%
NO Price
54.5%
Volume
$5.0K
Liquidity
$6.1K
Days to Expiry
102
Jun 23, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Lean NO
Strength
66.7%
Edge
31.8%
Smart Wallets
3
Total smart money volume: $1.2K across 3 wallets. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 3 tracked wallets have deployed $1.2K in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge is 31.8% — a substantial gap between the current market price and where smart money analysis suggests the true probability lies. With the market pricing YES at 45.5% and the Lean NO consensus, there's a meaningful divergence that could represent a trading opportunity. Edges this large don't persist indefinitely; they either correct as the market catches up, or the smart money thesis proves wrong.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 45.5% and NO at 54.5%. A YES resolution returns 2.20x while a NO resolution returns 1.83x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
This is a longer-dated market with 102 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
At $5.0K in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
23/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
114%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$6.1K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 45.5% and NO at 54.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 45.5%. The market has seen $5.0K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?"?
Smart money consensus is Lean NO with 67% strength. 3 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $1.2K. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 23 out of 72 and an alpha score of 11 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 31.8%. The annualized return potential is 114%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this other markets market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on June 23, 2026. That's 102 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?" market?
The market has $6.1K in liquidity. Thin liquidity — may experience slippage on larger orders Total volume traded is $5.0K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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