Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?
YES Price
35.0%
NO Price
65.0%
Volume
--
Liquidity
$7.7K
Days to Expiry
144
Aug 4, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Strong NO
Strength
100.0%
Edge
35.0%
Smart Wallets
1
Total smart money volume: $10 across 1 wallet. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 1 tracked wallets have deployed $10 in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge is 35.0% — a substantial gap between the current market price and where smart money analysis suggests the true probability lies. With the market pricing YES at 35.0% and the Strong NO consensus, there's a meaningful divergence that could represent a trading opportunity. Edges this large don't persist indefinitely; they either correct as the market catches up, or the smart money thesis proves wrong.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 35.0% and NO at 65.0%. A YES resolution returns 2.86x while a NO resolution returns 1.54x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
This is a longer-dated market with 144 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
25/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
89%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$7.7K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 35.0% and NO at 65.0%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 35.0%.
What does smart money think about "Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?"?
Smart money consensus is Strong NO with 100% strength. 1 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $10. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 25 out of 72 and an alpha score of 1 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 35.0%. The annualized return potential is 89%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this other markets market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on August 4, 2026. That's 144 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?" market?
The market has $7.7K in liquidity. Thin liquidity — may experience slippage on larger orders
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