Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
YES Price
22.0%
NO Price
78.0%
Volume
--
Liquidity
$3.9K
Days to Expiry
106
Jun 27, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Lean NO
Strength
64.7%
Edge
15.4%
Smart Wallets
3
Total smart money volume: $224 across 3 wallets. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 3 tracked wallets have deployed $224 in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge is 15.4% — a substantial gap between the current market price and where smart money analysis suggests the true probability lies. With the market pricing YES at 22.0% and the Lean NO consensus, there's a meaningful divergence that could represent a trading opportunity. Edges this large don't persist indefinitely; they either correct as the market catches up, or the smart money thesis proves wrong.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 22.0% and NO at 78.0%. A YES resolution returns 4.55x while a NO resolution returns 1.28x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
This is a longer-dated market with 106 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
12/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
53%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$3.9K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 22.0% and NO at 78.0%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 22.0%.
What does smart money think about "Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?"?
Smart money consensus is Lean NO with 65% strength. 3 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $224. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 12 out of 72 and an alpha score of 1 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 15.4%. The annualized return potential is 53%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this sports market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on June 27, 2026. That's 106 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" market?
The market has $3.9K in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk
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