Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?
YES Price
61.9%
NO Price
38.1%
Volume
$2.60M
Liquidity
$39.5K
Days to Expiry
18
Mar 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Low Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Lean NO
Strength
58.8%
Edge
43.3%
Smart Wallets
80
Total smart money volume: $428.7K across 80 wallets. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 80 tracked wallets have deployed $428.7K in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge is 43.3% — a substantial gap between the current market price and where smart money analysis suggests the true probability lies. With the market pricing YES at 61.9% and the Lean NO consensus, there's a meaningful divergence that could represent a trading opportunity. Edges this large don't persist indefinitely; they either correct as the market catches up, or the smart money thesis proves wrong.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 61.9% and NO at 38.1%. A YES resolution returns 1.62x while a NO resolution returns 2.62x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
18 days remain until this market resolves. This medium-term horizon gives time for the smart money thesis to play out, but also introduces event risk. Markets this far from expiry can see significant price swings as new information emerges.
With $2.60M in total volume, this is a heavily-traded market with strong price discovery. High-volume markets tend to be more efficiently priced, making any remaining smart money edge particularly significant — it's harder to find alpha in liquid markets.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
54/72
Moderate Opportunity
Annualized Return
878%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$39.5K
Available depth
This market scores in the top tier for trading opportunity. The combination of smart money edge, market liquidity, and time to expiry makes it worth close attention. The annualized return of 878% is attractive if the smart money consensus proves correct.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 61.9% and NO at 38.1%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 61.9%. The market has seen $2.60M in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?"?
Smart money consensus is Lean NO with 59% strength. 80 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $428.7K. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 54 out of 72 and an alpha score of 34 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 43.3%. The annualized return potential is 878%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this world politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2026. That's 18 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?" market?
The market has $39.5K in liquidity. Moderate liquidity — suitable for most position sizes Total volume traded is $2.60M, which provides additional context on market activity.
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