Will Laura Fine be the Democratic nominee for IL-09?
YES Price
4.0%
NO Price
96.0%
Volume
$9.3K
Liquidity
$7.6K
Days to Expiry
4
Mar 17, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Strong NO
Strength
75.0%
Edge
3.9%
Smart Wallets
4
Total smart money volume: $957 across 4 wallets. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 4 tracked wallets have deployed $957 in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge is a narrow 3.9%, meaning smart money and the market are largely in agreement. The current YES price of 4.0% is close to where informed traders think it should be. In tight-edge markets, transaction costs and timing become more critical factors.
At 4.0% for YES, this is a high-payout longshot. A YES resolution would return roughly 25.3x on the investment. The asymmetry is attractive — you don't need to be right often on these to profit, but the base rate of sub-20% events resolving YES is low. Consider position sizing accordingly.
With 4 days until expiry, this is a short-duration trade. The compressed timeline limits exposure to black swan events but also means the market is likely well-informed. Position conviction should be high at this stage.
At $9.3K in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
32/72
Mild Opportunity
Annualized Return
360%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$7.6K
Available depth
This market presents a moderate trading opportunity. The edge exists but is balanced against factors like liquidity constraints or lower conviction in the consensus. Position sizing should reflect the moderate confidence level.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Laura Fine be the Democratic nominee for IL-09?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 4.0% and NO at 96.0%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 4.0%. The market has seen $9.3K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will Laura Fine be the Democratic nominee for IL-09?"?
Smart money consensus is Strong NO with 75% strength. 4 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $957. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Will Laura Fine be the Democratic nominee for IL-09?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 32 out of 72 and an alpha score of 10 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 3.9%. The annualized return potential is 360%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this other markets market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 17, 2026. That's 4 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Laura Fine be the Democratic nominee for IL-09?" market?
The market has $7.6K in liquidity. Thin liquidity — may experience slippage on larger orders Total volume traded is $9.3K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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