Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
YES Price
37.5%
NO Price
62.5%
Volume
$2.90M
Liquidity
$71.0K
Days to Expiry
30
Apr 12, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Split
Strength
53.3%
Edge
--
Smart Wallets
45
Total smart money volume: $160.1K across 45 wallets. Direction: SPLIT.
Market Analysis
Smart money is divided on this market. 45 tracked wallets have placed $160.1K in total positions, but without a clear directional consensus. A split among informed traders often indicates genuine uncertainty — this market may be closer to a coin flip than the current prices suggest.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 37.5% and NO at 62.5%. A YES resolution returns 2.67x while a NO resolution returns 1.60x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
30 days remain until this market resolves. This medium-term horizon gives time for the smart money thesis to play out, but also introduces event risk. Markets this far from expiry can see significant price swings as new information emerges.
With $2.90M in total volume, this is a heavily-traded market with strong price discovery. High-volume markets tend to be more efficiently priced, making any remaining smart money edge particularly significant — it's harder to find alpha in liquid markets.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
29/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
--
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$71.0K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 37.5% and NO at 62.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 37.5%. The market has seen $2.90M in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?"?
Smart money consensus is Split with 53% strength. 45 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $160.1K. Their overall direction is SPLIT.
Is "Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 29 out of 72 and an alpha score of 1 out of 100. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this world politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on April 12, 2026. That's 30 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?" market?
The market has $71.0K in liquidity. Moderate liquidity — suitable for most position sizes Total volume traded is $2.90M, which provides additional context on market activity.
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