Will Dollar Tree (DLTR) beat quarterly earnings?
YES Price
95.0%
NO Price
5.0%
Volume
$11.7K
Liquidity
$5.2K
Days to Expiry
4
Mar 16, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Lean YES
Strength
66.7%
Edge
3.5%
Smart Wallets
3
Total smart money volume: $1.7K across 3 wallets. Direction: STRONG YES.
Market Analysis
Smart money is decisively bullish on this market. 3 tracked wallets with a history of profitable trades have taken positions totaling $1.7K, overwhelmingly favoring YES. This level of conviction from informed traders is notable — when this many smart wallets align on one side, it often signals information or analysis the broader market hasn't fully priced in.
The consensus edge is a narrow 3.5%, meaning smart money and the market are largely in agreement. The current YES price of 95.0% is close to where informed traders think it should be. In tight-edge markets, transaction costs and timing become more critical factors.
With YES priced at 95.0%, this is a high-probability market with limited upside. A YES win returns only 5% on capital. The real opportunity may be on the NO side if you believe the market is overestimating the likelihood of this outcome. At 5.0% for NO, a correct contrarian bet returns 20.0x.
With 4 days until expiry, this is a short-duration trade. The compressed timeline limits exposure to black swan events but also means the market is likely well-informed. Position conviction should be high at this stage.
At $11.7K in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
31/72
Mild Opportunity
Annualized Return
319%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$5.2K
Available depth
This market presents a moderate trading opportunity. The edge exists but is balanced against factors like liquidity constraints or lower conviction in the consensus. Position sizing should reflect the moderate confidence level.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Dollar Tree (DLTR) beat quarterly earnings?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 95.0% and NO at 5.0%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 95.0%. The market has seen $11.7K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will Dollar Tree (DLTR) beat quarterly earnings?"?
Smart money consensus is Lean YES with 67% strength. 3 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $1.7K. Their overall direction is STRONG YES.
Is "Will Dollar Tree (DLTR) beat quarterly earnings?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 31 out of 72 and an alpha score of 4 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 3.5%. The annualized return potential is 319%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this business & economics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 16, 2026. That's 4 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Dollar Tree (DLTR) beat quarterly earnings?" market?
The market has $5.2K in liquidity. Thin liquidity — may experience slippage on larger orders Total volume traded is $11.7K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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