Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?
YES Price
77.5%
NO Price
22.4%
Volume
$33.2K
Liquidity
$26.9K
Days to Expiry
233
Oct 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Strong YES
Strength
100.0%
Edge
22.5%
Smart Wallets
1
Total smart money volume: $32 across 1 wallet. Direction: STRONG YES.
Market Analysis
Smart money is decisively bullish on this market. 1 tracked wallets with a history of profitable trades have taken positions totaling $32, overwhelmingly favoring YES. This level of conviction from informed traders is notable — when this many smart wallets align on one side, it often signals information or analysis the broader market hasn't fully priced in.
The consensus edge is 22.5% — a substantial gap between the current market price and where smart money analysis suggests the true probability lies. With the market pricing YES at 77.5% and the Strong YES consensus, there's a meaningful divergence that could represent a trading opportunity. Edges this large don't persist indefinitely; they either correct as the market catches up, or the smart money thesis proves wrong.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 77.5% and NO at 22.4%. A YES resolution returns 1.29x while a NO resolution returns 4.45x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
This is a longer-dated market with 233 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
At $33.2K in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
21/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
35%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$26.9K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 77.5% and NO at 22.4%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 77.5%. The market has seen $33.2K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?"?
Smart money consensus is Strong YES with 100% strength. 1 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $32. Their overall direction is STRONG YES.
Is "Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 21 out of 72 and an alpha score of 7 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 22.5%. The annualized return potential is 35%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this business & economics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on October 31, 2026. That's 233 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?" market?
The market has $26.9K in liquidity. Moderate liquidity — suitable for most position sizes Total volume traded is $33.2K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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