Will Chael Sonnen win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?
YES Price
2.9%
NO Price
97.2%
Volume
--
Liquidity
$4.1K
Days to Expiry
67
May 19, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Strong NO
Strength
100.0%
Edge
2.8%
Smart Wallets
1
Total smart money volume: $59 across 1 wallet. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 1 tracked wallets have deployed $59 in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge is a narrow 2.8%, meaning smart money and the market are largely in agreement. The current YES price of 2.9% is close to where informed traders think it should be. In tight-edge markets, transaction costs and timing become more critical factors.
At 2.9% for YES, this is a high-payout longshot. A YES resolution would return roughly 35.1x on the investment. The asymmetry is attractive — you don't need to be right often on these to profit, but the base rate of sub-20% events resolving YES is low. Consider position sizing accordingly.
This is a longer-dated market with 67 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
15/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
16%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$4.1K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Chael Sonnen win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 2.9% and NO at 97.2%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 2.9%.
What does smart money think about "Will Chael Sonnen win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?"?
Smart money consensus is Strong NO with 100% strength. 1 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $59. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Will Chael Sonnen win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 15 out of 72 and an alpha score of 1 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 2.8%. The annualized return potential is 16%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this us politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on May 19, 2026. That's 67 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Chael Sonnen win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?" market?
The market has $4.1K in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk
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