Will Chip Roy win the Texas Republican primary runoff for Attorney General?
YES Price
24.5%
NO Price
75.5%
Volume
--
Liquidity
$632
Days to Expiry
74
May 26, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Strong NO
Strength
100.0%
Edge
24.5%
Smart Wallets
1
Total smart money volume: $62 across 1 wallet. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 1 tracked wallets have deployed $62 in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge is 24.5% — a substantial gap between the current market price and where smart money analysis suggests the true probability lies. With the market pricing YES at 24.5% and the Strong NO consensus, there's a meaningful divergence that could represent a trading opportunity. Edges this large don't persist indefinitely; they either correct as the market catches up, or the smart money thesis proves wrong.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 24.5% and NO at 75.5%. A YES resolution returns 4.08x while a NO resolution returns 1.32x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
This is a longer-dated market with 74 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
25/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
121%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$632
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Chip Roy win the Texas Republican primary runoff for Attorney General?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 24.5% and NO at 75.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 24.5%.
What does smart money think about "Will Chip Roy win the Texas Republican primary runoff for Attorney General?"?
Smart money consensus is Strong NO with 100% strength. 1 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $62. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Will Chip Roy win the Texas Republican primary runoff for Attorney General?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 25 out of 72 and an alpha score of 1 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 24.5%. The annualized return potential is 121%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this us politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on May 26, 2026. That's 74 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Chip Roy win the Texas Republican primary runoff for Attorney General?" market?
The market has $632 in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk
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