Will Colby Donaldson be voted off Survivor Season 50 this week?
YES Price
13.0%
NO Price
87.0%
Volume
$807
Liquidity
$914
Days to Expiry
5
Mar 18, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Strong NO
Strength
100.0%
Edge
13.0%
Smart Wallets
1
Total smart money volume: $677 across 1 wallet. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 1 tracked wallets have deployed $677 in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge sits at 13.0%, indicating a moderate gap between market pricing and smart money sentiment. YES is currently at 13.0% while the Strong NO consensus suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to the information smart wallets are acting on. This edge is meaningful but not extreme.
At 13.0% for YES, this is a high-payout longshot. A YES resolution would return roughly 7.7x on the investment. The asymmetry is attractive — you don't need to be right often on these to profit, but the base rate of sub-20% events resolving YES is low. Consider position sizing accordingly.
With 5 days until expiry, this is a short-duration trade. The compressed timeline limits exposure to black swan events but also means the market is likely well-informed. Position conviction should be high at this stage.
At $807 in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
32/72
Mild Opportunity
Annualized Return
949%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$914
Available depth
This market presents a moderate trading opportunity. The edge exists but is balanced against factors like liquidity constraints or lower conviction in the consensus. Position sizing should reflect the moderate confidence level.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Colby Donaldson be voted off Survivor Season 50 this week?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 13.0% and NO at 87.0%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 13.0%. The market has seen $807 in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will Colby Donaldson be voted off Survivor Season 50 this week?"?
Smart money consensus is Strong NO with 100% strength. 1 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $677. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Will Colby Donaldson be voted off Survivor Season 50 this week?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 32 out of 72 and an alpha score of 14 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 13.0%. The annualized return potential is 949%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this pop culture market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 18, 2026. That's 5 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Colby Donaldson be voted off Survivor Season 50 this week?" market?
The market has $914 in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk Total volume traded is $807, which provides additional context on market activity.
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