Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?
YES Price
68.0%
NO Price
32.0%
Volume
$323.1K
Liquidity
$38.1K
Days to Expiry
18
Mar 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Very High Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Strong YES
Strength
77.8%
Edge
32.0%
Smart Wallets
18
Total smart money volume: $13.8K across 18 wallets. Direction: STRONG YES.
Market Analysis
Smart money is decisively bullish on this market. 18 tracked wallets with a history of profitable trades have taken positions totaling $13.8K, overwhelmingly favoring YES. This level of conviction from informed traders is notable — when this many smart wallets align on one side, it often signals information or analysis the broader market hasn't fully priced in.
The consensus edge is 32.0% — a substantial gap between the current market price and where smart money analysis suggests the true probability lies. With the market pricing YES at 68.0% and the Strong YES consensus, there's a meaningful divergence that could represent a trading opportunity. Edges this large don't persist indefinitely; they either correct as the market catches up, or the smart money thesis proves wrong.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 68.0% and NO at 32.0%. A YES resolution returns 1.47x while a NO resolution returns 3.13x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
18 days remain until this market resolves. This medium-term horizon gives time for the smart money thesis to play out, but also introduces event risk. Markets this far from expiry can see significant price swings as new information emerges.
Total trading volume of $323.1K puts this in the moderately active tier. There's enough price discovery for the odds to be somewhat reliable, but not so much that alpha opportunities are completely arbitraged away.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
47/72
Moderate Opportunity
Annualized Return
649%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$38.1K
Available depth
This market presents a moderate trading opportunity. The edge exists but is balanced against factors like liquidity constraints or lower conviction in the consensus. Position sizing should reflect the moderate confidence level.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 68.0% and NO at 32.0%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 68.0%. The market has seen $323.1K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?"?
Smart money consensus is Strong YES with 78% strength. 18 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $13.8K. Their overall direction is STRONG YES.
Is "Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 47 out of 72 and an alpha score of 100 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 32.0%. The annualized return potential is 649%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this us politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2026. That's 18 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?" market?
The market has $38.1K in liquidity. Moderate liquidity — suitable for most position sizes Total volume traded is $323.1K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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