Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?
YES Price
57.0%
NO Price
43.0%
Volume
--
Liquidity
$7.5K
Days to Expiry
151
Aug 11, 2026
Alpha Score
Insufficient Data
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Split
Strength
50.0%
Edge
--
Smart Wallets
2
Total smart money volume: $499 across 2 wallets. Direction: SPLIT.
Market Analysis
Smart money is divided on this market. 2 tracked wallets have placed $499 in total positions, but without a clear directional consensus. A split among informed traders often indicates genuine uncertainty — this market may be closer to a coin flip than the current prices suggest.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 57.0% and NO at 43.0%. A YES resolution returns 1.75x while a NO resolution returns 2.33x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
This is a longer-dated market with 151 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
4/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
--
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$7.5K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 57.0% and NO at 43.0%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 57.0%.
What does smart money think about "Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?"?
Smart money consensus is Split with 50% strength. 2 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $499. Their overall direction is SPLIT.
Is "Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 4 out of 72 and an alpha score of N/A out of 100. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this us politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on August 11, 2026. That's 151 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?" market?
The market has $7.5K in liquidity. Thin liquidity — may experience slippage on larger orders
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