Will Matt Heilala advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?
YES Price
14.5%
NO Price
85.5%
Volume
--
Liquidity
$5.5K
Days to Expiry
158
Aug 18, 2026
Alpha Score
Insufficient Data
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Strong NO
Strength
100.0%
Edge
14.5%
Smart Wallets
1
Total smart money volume: $848 across 1 wallet. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 1 tracked wallets have deployed $848 in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge sits at 14.5%, indicating a moderate gap between market pricing and smart money sentiment. YES is currently at 14.5% while the Strong NO consensus suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to the information smart wallets are acting on. This edge is meaningful but not extreme.
At 14.5% for YES, this is a high-payout longshot. A YES resolution would return roughly 6.9x on the investment. The asymmetry is attractive — you don't need to be right often on these to profit, but the base rate of sub-20% events resolving YES is low. Consider position sizing accordingly.
This is a longer-dated market with 158 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
12/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
34%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$5.5K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Matt Heilala advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 14.5% and NO at 85.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 14.5%.
What does smart money think about "Will Matt Heilala advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?"?
Smart money consensus is Strong NO with 100% strength. 1 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $848. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Will Matt Heilala advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 12 out of 72 and an alpha score of N/A out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 14.5%. The annualized return potential is 34%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this us politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on August 18, 2026. That's 158 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Matt Heilala advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?" market?
The market has $5.5K in liquidity. Thin liquidity — may experience slippage on larger orders
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