Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in March?
YES Price
27.5%
NO Price
72.5%
Volume
$806
Liquidity
$3.1K
Days to Expiry
28
Apr 10, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Strong YES
Strength
100.0%
Edge
72.5%
Smart Wallets
1
Total smart money volume: $336 across 1 wallet. Direction: STRONG YES.
Market Analysis
Smart money is decisively bullish on this market. 1 tracked wallets with a history of profitable trades have taken positions totaling $336, overwhelmingly favoring YES. This level of conviction from informed traders is notable — when this many smart wallets align on one side, it often signals information or analysis the broader market hasn't fully priced in.
The consensus edge is 72.5% — a substantial gap between the current market price and where smart money analysis suggests the true probability lies. With the market pricing YES at 27.5% and the Strong YES consensus, there's a meaningful divergence that could represent a trading opportunity. Edges this large don't persist indefinitely; they either correct as the market catches up, or the smart money thesis proves wrong.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 27.5% and NO at 72.5%. A YES resolution returns 3.64x while a NO resolution returns 1.38x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
28 days remain until this market resolves. This medium-term horizon gives time for the smart money thesis to play out, but also introduces event risk. Markets this far from expiry can see significant price swings as new information emerges.
At $806 in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
52/72
Moderate Opportunity
Annualized Return
945%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$3.1K
Available depth
This market scores in the top tier for trading opportunity. The combination of smart money edge, market liquidity, and time to expiry makes it worth close attention. The annualized return of 945% is attractive if the smart money consensus proves correct.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in March?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 27.5% and NO at 72.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 27.5%. The market has seen $806 in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in March?"?
Smart money consensus is Strong YES with 100% strength. 1 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $336. Their overall direction is STRONG YES.
Is "Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in March?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 52 out of 72 and an alpha score of 10 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 72.5%. The annualized return potential is 945%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this business & economics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on April 10, 2026. That's 28 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in March?" market?
The market has $3.1K in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk Total volume traded is $806, which provides additional context on market activity.
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