Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election?
YES Price
94.8%
NO Price
5.3%
Volume
$107.2K
Liquidity
$11.4K
Days to Expiry
2
Mar 15, 2026
Alpha Score
Insufficient Data
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Split
Strength
54.5%
Edge
--
Smart Wallets
11
Total smart money volume: $10.0K across 11 wallets. Direction: SPLIT.
Market Analysis
Smart money is divided on this market. 11 tracked wallets have placed $10.0K in total positions, but without a clear directional consensus. A split among informed traders often indicates genuine uncertainty — this market may be closer to a coin flip than the current prices suggest.
With YES priced at 94.8%, this is a high-probability market with limited upside. A YES win returns only 6% on capital. The real opportunity may be on the NO side if you believe the market is overestimating the likelihood of this outcome. At 5.3% for NO, a correct contrarian bet returns 19.0x.
This market expires in 2 days — resolution is imminent. Short-dated markets tend to have the most accurate pricing since most information is already known. Any remaining edge is likely small, but the rapid time decay means positions resolve quickly with minimal holding risk.
Total trading volume of $107.2K puts this in the moderately active tier. There's enough price discovery for the odds to be somewhat reliable, but not so much that alpha opportunities are completely arbitraged away.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
13/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
--
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$11.4K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 94.8% and NO at 5.3%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 94.8%. The market has seen $107.2K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election?"?
Smart money consensus is Split with 55% strength. 11 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $10.0K. Their overall direction is SPLIT.
Is "Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 13 out of 72 and an alpha score of N/A out of 100. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this us politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 15, 2026. That's 2 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election?" market?
The market has $11.4K in liquidity. Thin liquidity — may experience slippage on larger orders Total volume traded is $107.2K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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