Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference?
YES Price
42.5%
NO Price
57.5%
Volume
$2.5K
Liquidity
$2.3K
Days to Expiry
5
Mar 18, 2026
Alpha Score
Insufficient Data
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Split
Strength
50.0%
Edge
--
Smart Wallets
2
Total smart money volume: $10 across 2 wallets. Direction: SPLIT.
Market Analysis
Smart money is divided on this market. 2 tracked wallets have placed $10 in total positions, but without a clear directional consensus. A split among informed traders often indicates genuine uncertainty — this market may be closer to a coin flip than the current prices suggest.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 42.5% and NO at 57.5%. A YES resolution returns 2.35x while a NO resolution returns 1.74x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
With 5 days until expiry, this is a short-duration trade. The compressed timeline limits exposure to black swan events but also means the market is likely well-informed. Position conviction should be high at this stage.
At $2.5K in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
26/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
--
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$2.3K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 42.5% and NO at 57.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 42.5%. The market has seen $2.5K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference?"?
Smart money consensus is Split with 50% strength. 2 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $10. Their overall direction is SPLIT.
Is "Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 26 out of 72 and an alpha score of N/A out of 100. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this business & economics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 18, 2026. That's 5 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference?" market?
The market has $2.3K in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk Total volume traded is $2.5K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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