Will Raymond McKay be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island?
YES Price
81.0%
NO Price
19.0%
Volume
--
Liquidity
$3.8K
Days to Expiry
179
Sep 8, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Strong YES
Strength
100.0%
Edge
19.0%
Smart Wallets
1
Total smart money volume: $31 across 1 wallet. Direction: STRONG YES.
Market Analysis
Smart money is decisively bullish on this market. 1 tracked wallets with a history of profitable trades have taken positions totaling $31, overwhelmingly favoring YES. This level of conviction from informed traders is notable — when this many smart wallets align on one side, it often signals information or analysis the broader market hasn't fully priced in.
The consensus edge is 19.0% — a substantial gap between the current market price and where smart money analysis suggests the true probability lies. With the market pricing YES at 81.0% and the Strong YES consensus, there's a meaningful divergence that could represent a trading opportunity. Edges this large don't persist indefinitely; they either correct as the market catches up, or the smart money thesis proves wrong.
With YES priced at 81.0%, this is a high-probability market with limited upside. A YES win returns only 23% on capital. The real opportunity may be on the NO side if you believe the market is overestimating the likelihood of this outcome. At 19.0% for NO, a correct contrarian bet returns 5.3x.
This is a longer-dated market with 179 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
14/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
39%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$3.8K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Raymond McKay be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 81.0% and NO at 19.0%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 81.0%.
What does smart money think about "Will Raymond McKay be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island?"?
Smart money consensus is Strong YES with 100% strength. 1 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $31. Their overall direction is STRONG YES.
Is "Will Raymond McKay be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 14 out of 72 and an alpha score of 1 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 19.0%. The annualized return potential is 39%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this us politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on September 8, 2026. That's 179 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Raymond McKay be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island?" market?
The market has $3.8K in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk
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