Will Rob Sand win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary election?
YES Price
95.0%
NO Price
5.0%
Volume
--
Liquidity
$6.5K
Days to Expiry
81
Jun 2, 2026
Alpha Score
Insufficient Data
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Lean YES
Strength
66.7%
Edge
3.5%
Smart Wallets
3
Total smart money volume: $316 across 3 wallets. Direction: STRONG YES.
Market Analysis
Smart money is decisively bullish on this market. 3 tracked wallets with a history of profitable trades have taken positions totaling $316, overwhelmingly favoring YES. This level of conviction from informed traders is notable — when this many smart wallets align on one side, it often signals information or analysis the broader market hasn't fully priced in.
The consensus edge is a narrow 3.5%, meaning smart money and the market are largely in agreement. The current YES price of 95.0% is close to where informed traders think it should be. In tight-edge markets, transaction costs and timing become more critical factors.
With YES priced at 95.0%, this is a high-probability market with limited upside. A YES win returns only 5% on capital. The real opportunity may be on the NO side if you believe the market is overestimating the likelihood of this outcome. At 5.0% for NO, a correct contrarian bet returns 20.0x.
This is a longer-dated market with 81 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
16/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
16%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$6.5K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Rob Sand win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary election?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 95.0% and NO at 5.0%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 95.0%.
What does smart money think about "Will Rob Sand win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary election?"?
Smart money consensus is Lean YES with 67% strength. 3 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $316. Their overall direction is STRONG YES.
Is "Will Rob Sand win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary election?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 16 out of 72 and an alpha score of N/A out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 3.5%. The annualized return potential is 16%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this us politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on June 2, 2026. That's 81 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Rob Sand win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary election?" market?
The market has $6.5K in liquidity. Thin liquidity — may experience slippage on larger orders
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