Will Ron Johnson vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?
YES Price
21.0%
NO Price
79.0%
Volume
--
Liquidity
$1.6K
Days to Expiry
18
Mar 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Insufficient Data
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Split
Strength
49.4%
Edge
--
Smart Wallets
3
Total smart money volume: $872 across 3 wallets. Direction: SPLIT.
Market Analysis
Smart money is divided on this market. 3 tracked wallets have placed $872 in total positions, but without a clear directional consensus. A split among informed traders often indicates genuine uncertainty — this market may be closer to a coin flip than the current prices suggest.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 21.0% and NO at 79.0%. A YES resolution returns 4.76x while a NO resolution returns 1.27x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
18 days remain until this market resolves. This medium-term horizon gives time for the smart money thesis to play out, but also introduces event risk. Markets this far from expiry can see significant price swings as new information emerges.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
21/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
--
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$1.6K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Ron Johnson vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 21.0% and NO at 79.0%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 21.0%.
What does smart money think about "Will Ron Johnson vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?"?
Smart money consensus is Split with 49% strength. 3 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $872. Their overall direction is SPLIT.
Is "Will Ron Johnson vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 21 out of 72 and an alpha score of N/A out of 100. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this us politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2026. That's 18 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Ron Johnson vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?" market?
The market has $1.6K in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk
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