Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
YES Price
19.0%
NO Price
81.0%
Volume
$2.98M
Liquidity
$19.5K
Days to Expiry
2
Mar 15, 2026
Alpha Score
Insufficient Data
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Split
Strength
48.5%
Edge
--
Smart Wallets
66
Total smart money volume: $59.1K across 66 wallets. Direction: SPLIT.
Market Analysis
Smart money is divided on this market. 66 tracked wallets have placed $59.1K in total positions, but without a clear directional consensus. A split among informed traders often indicates genuine uncertainty — this market may be closer to a coin flip than the current prices suggest.
At 19.0% for YES, this is a high-payout longshot. A YES resolution would return roughly 5.3x on the investment. The asymmetry is attractive — you don't need to be right often on these to profit, but the base rate of sub-20% events resolving YES is low. Consider position sizing accordingly.
This market expires in 2 days — resolution is imminent. Short-dated markets tend to have the most accurate pricing since most information is already known. Any remaining edge is likely small, but the rapid time decay means positions resolve quickly with minimal holding risk.
With $2.98M in total volume, this is a heavily-traded market with strong price discovery. High-volume markets tend to be more efficiently priced, making any remaining smart money edge particularly significant — it's harder to find alpha in liquid markets.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
14/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
--
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$19.5K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 19.0% and NO at 81.0%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 19.0%. The market has seen $2.98M in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?"?
Smart money consensus is Split with 48% strength. 66 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $59.1K. Their overall direction is SPLIT.
Is "Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 14 out of 72 and an alpha score of N/A out of 100. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this pop culture market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 15, 2026. That's 2 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?" market?
The market has $19.5K in liquidity. Thin liquidity — may experience slippage on larger orders Total volume traded is $2.98M, which provides additional context on market activity.
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