Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?
YES Price
43.5%
NO Price
56.5%
Volume
$126.0K
Liquidity
$10.2K
Days to Expiry
1
Mar 14, 2026
Alpha Score
Insufficient Data
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Split
Strength
51.7%
Edge
--
Smart Wallets
23
Total smart money volume: $33.0K across 23 wallets. Direction: SPLIT.
Market Analysis
Smart money is divided on this market. 23 tracked wallets have placed $33.0K in total positions, but without a clear directional consensus. A split among informed traders often indicates genuine uncertainty — this market may be closer to a coin flip than the current prices suggest.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 43.5% and NO at 56.5%. A YES resolution returns 2.30x while a NO resolution returns 1.77x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
This market expires in 1 day — resolution is imminent. Short-dated markets tend to have the most accurate pricing since most information is already known. Any remaining edge is likely small, but the rapid time decay means positions resolve quickly with minimal holding risk.
Total trading volume of $126.0K puts this in the moderately active tier. There's enough price discovery for the odds to be somewhat reliable, but not so much that alpha opportunities are completely arbitraged away.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
13/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
--
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$10.2K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 43.5% and NO at 56.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 43.5%. The market has seen $126.0K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?"?
Smart money consensus is Split with 52% strength. 23 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $33.0K. Their overall direction is SPLIT.
Is "Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 13 out of 72 and an alpha score of N/A out of 100. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this us politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 14, 2026. That's 1 day from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?" market?
The market has $10.2K in liquidity. Thin liquidity — may experience slippage on larger orders Total volume traded is $126.0K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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