Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 3% and 4%?

Smart money is decisively bullish on this market. 2 tracked wallets with a history of profitable trades have taken positions totaling $160, overwhelmingly favoring YES. This level of conviction from informed traders is notable — when this many smart wallets align on one side, it often signals information or analysis the broader market hasn't fully priced in.

The consensus edge is 96.4% — a substantial gap between the current market price and where smart money analysis suggests the true probability lies. With the market pricing YES at 3.6% and the Strong YES consensus, there's a meaningful divergence that could represent a trading opportunity. Edges this large don't persist indefinitely; they either correct as the market catches up, or the smart money thesis proves wrong.

At 3.6% for YES, this is a high-payout longshot. A YES resolution would return roughly 27.4x on the investment. The asymmetry is attractive — you don't need to be right often on these to profit, but the base rate of sub-20% events resolving YES is low. Consider position sizing accordingly.

18 days remain until this market resolves. This medium-term horizon gives time for the smart money thesis to play out, but also introduces event risk. Markets this far from expiry can see significant price swings as new information emerges.

At $3.3K in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.