Will the Republican Party win the TX-36 House seat?
YES Price
87.5%
NO Price
12.5%
Volume
--
Liquidity
$8.8K
Days to Expiry
235
Nov 3, 2026
Alpha Score
Insufficient Data
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Strong YES
Strength
100.0%
Edge
12.5%
Smart Wallets
1
Total smart money volume: $10 across 1 wallet. Direction: STRONG YES.
Market Analysis
Smart money is decisively bullish on this market. 1 tracked wallets with a history of profitable trades have taken positions totaling $10, overwhelmingly favoring YES. This level of conviction from informed traders is notable — when this many smart wallets align on one side, it often signals information or analysis the broader market hasn't fully priced in.
The consensus edge sits at 12.5%, indicating a moderate gap between market pricing and smart money sentiment. YES is currently at 87.5% while the Strong YES consensus suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to the information smart wallets are acting on. This edge is meaningful but not extreme.
With YES priced at 87.5%, this is a high-probability market with limited upside. A YES win returns only 14% on capital. The real opportunity may be on the NO side if you believe the market is overestimating the likelihood of this outcome. At 12.5% for NO, a correct contrarian bet returns 8.0x.
This is a longer-dated market with 235 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
12/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
19%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$8.8K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will the Republican Party win the TX-36 House seat?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 87.5% and NO at 12.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 87.5%.
What does smart money think about "Will the Republican Party win the TX-36 House seat?"?
Smart money consensus is Strong YES with 100% strength. 1 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $10. Their overall direction is STRONG YES.
Is "Will the Republican Party win the TX-36 House seat?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 12 out of 72 and an alpha score of N/A out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 12.5%. The annualized return potential is 19%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this us politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026. That's 235 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will the Republican Party win the TX-36 House seat?" market?
The market has $8.8K in liquidity. Thin liquidity — may experience slippage on larger orders
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